Monday, May 21, 2012

School time with Sam I Am

So Dinar Douchebags is one of my most favorite sites.  Sam I Am has a ton of info on all of the gurus, but his responses to Adam Montana posts brighten my day.  Enjoy!

On Wednesday Adam Montana served up this jewel:

[Adam Montana] let me make ONE point. Wealth cannot simply "disappear", it can only change hands
[Adam Montana] Iraq was once a VERY wealthy country, with a currency valued at 3X the USD
[Adam Montana] now, you'll hear the l0psters talking about M2, they say you can't simply revalue the currency and gain money, etc etc.... the same goes for DEvaluing the currency. It does not matter how many 0's they have on their bills, it doesn't matter if there's 16 gazillion of these Dinars in circulation, because the notion that their wealth simply "disappeared" 8 years ago is a complete sham
[Adam Montana] it didn't disappear. Iraq still has the same wealth that they did in the past, it's just hidden behind a ridiculously undervalued currency
[Adam Montana] UNDERVALUED. When they FIX that value, the wealth doesn't magically reappear, it is simply re-RECOGNIZED

OMG!!! Where to begin?  Iraq was never a wealthy country.  They had a valuable currency, that's true.  But their people were always poor for the most part and their GDP was never terribly impressive.  During the 1970s they experienced a booming economy, but once Saddam took over the reins in 1979 and plunged them into the war with Iran that ended.  The sanctions imposed after Desert Storm led to further economic decay.

Iraq - GDP Per Capita 1950-2008

Wealth disappears all the time.  It's called supply and demand.  Every bear market on Wall Street ends in a reduction of wealth.  Conversely every bull market brings an increase in wealth.  When Iraq's currency depreciated after Desert Storm the demand for their currency declined, so a certain amount of wealth was lost.  By the way, the dinar was valued at 3000 dinar to 1 USD back in 1995, Adam .... 17 years ago instead of 8.  So you're right I suppose.  The notion that Iraq's wealth suddenly disappeared 8 years ago (something the pumpers like to assert when they try to convince you that it can suddenly reappear) is a sham because it didn't happen.  It declined as a result of the sanctions imposed after Desert Storm (and massive government printing) rather than suddenly disappearing as a result of the invasion in 2003 as you stated.   

Following your logic every country with an abundance of natural resources (Venezuela and Brazil, for example) that suffers from hyperinflation ends up with an "undervalued" currency.  Why don't they just "FIX" that value so that it can be "re-recognized" rather than re-denominate as Venezuela and Brazil did?  Because you can't, Adam.  No more than you can "unscramble" an egg.  In order to fix the value of the IQD you would have to undo the last 22 years of Iraq's history.  Undo Desert Storm.  Undo the sanctions.  Undo Saddam's massive printing of currency.  Undo the Oil for Food program.  Undo Iraqi Freedom.  Undo the insurgency.  Unless somebody comes up with a time machine that ain't gonna happen.

The dinar's value didn't disappear overnight because of some plot by Dick Cheney and the global elite to steal Iraq's wealth.  It depreciated because of the events that unfolded just like Japan, Germany, and Vietnam's currencies did.  None of those countries "fixed" their currency's value with an RV and Iraq won't either.   

By the way, Iraq's currency was never "devalued" as you stated.  Look up the word and you'll see that it's a policy driven reduction in a currency's value.  The dinar's value was driven down by market forces (depreciation), not "devalued" by the CBI.  Geez, I thought you went to Harvard.

And then this from Adam on Thursday:

Iraq has already overcame 99.9% of the hurdles that they needed to get over.   (Has overcame, huh?  Nice grammar there, Mr. Harvard grad.)  They've accomplished what they need to accomplish, and it's now "poop or get off the pot" this time we're looking for the SAME THINGS AS LAST WEEK: (And every other week for the past year) HCL, Chapter 7, RV. It's really that simple. I'm still sticking to my "now to September" timeline.   (As opposed to your "RV by Thanksgiving" timeline from last year?)



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